COVID-19 is lurking out there, waiting for me to screw up

Well, May is over and June has arrived, and the COVID-19 virus that the president said would magically disappear when warm weather arrived in April continues to infect hundreds of West Virginians every week. It has also killed 75 people so far. It’s the number one thing that everybody in the state is talking about – or at least it should be – and I wouldn’t be much of a blogger if I didn’t write something about this pandemic as it moves into the summer months.

A couple of weeks ago I created an Excel chart to illustrate the progress of the disease. It’s a simple line graph with two lines – a blue line that shows the number of cases reported each day by the West Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources, and a red line that shows the cumulative number of cases identified since March 17, when the first case was confirmed in the state.

The WV DHHR issues two reports every day, one at 10 a.m. and one at 5 p.m., and every day I add the 5 p.m. statistics to my chart. I’ll show it to you in a few minutes. 

After I posted my graph on Facebook for the first time, it got shared around a bit which started a debate about the accuracy and value of the data. I was criticized for ignoring some variables that went into the reporting while being lectured by other posters with Trumpian talking points about the “real” number of cases, the liberal hysteria, the importance of saving the economy and other baseless Fox News rhetoric.

OK, fine. I get it. One man’s 18,000 lies are another man’s truth. I’m accustomed to that dynamic when arguing with people who think Trump is a genius businessman and TV star who was sent to earth by god to save the white man from discrimination.    

But back in the real world, here’s the simplest of simple truths: My chart was never intended to be a comprehensive, in-depth statistical analysis of the spread of the coronavirus and its various demographic components. It was intended to show two trends and two trends only:

(1) That a certain number of new cases is reported every day in the state.

(2) That the number of cases reported since March 17, when Patient Zero was diagnosed as positive for COVID-19, continues to climb and has now reached more than 2,000.

Why are these statistics important?

First off, the daily “blue line” shows that on average, 26 new cases are reported every single day. After the first few days in mid-March when COVID was just getting warmed up, the number jumped by 19 on March 24, and has fluctuated between a low of 7 and a high of 102 ever since. It spiked at 72, 71 and 67 on three days in May. The 102-point spike came about when the DHHR changed the way it reported positive COVID tests, which skewed the numbers for one day, but even at that, 56 new cases were reported using the old protocol. The blue line hit lows of 7 and 9 new cases on May 11 and 12, but at no time has this number ever reached zero, which would suggest that we had finally reached our peak and flattened out the curve.

Second, the cumulative number or “red line” has continued to climb steadily from Case #1 on March 17 to 2,010 cases on May 31. Because it’s cumulative, this line can never go down, but at no time has it ever gone flat, which, again, would indicate a peak number of cases and a flattening of the curve.

Meanwhile, instead of holding firm with his stay-home order and cautious approach to the virus, our governor is following the lead of the president and opening up hospitals, businesses, gyms, restaurants, malls, parks, trails and playgrounds around the state and encouraging people to resume their normal activities so we can collectively rescue the economy.

Oh, sure, there are still restrictions like when and where to don masks and how far apart to stand from other people, but have you been out there lately? How many people are actually following the guidelines? Friends tell me the employees in one of our supermarkets refused to wear masks until customers complained, and I have seen with my own eyes gatherings of people without protective equipment and behaving with no regard for the health and safety of others.   

That’s why I continue to stay at home, buy my groceries online, pick them up without leaving my car and get my prescriptions out of a slide-out drawer at the drive-up window at CVS. I have so many packages delivered my mailman wants to know when I’m putting up my Christmas tree. I have canceled three doctor appointments, refuse to go to the dentist and wash my hands after receiving any mail. As I’ve said before, I’m in five risk categories for dying if I ever contract this virus, and by my count, that’s five too many.

So while I’m staying home, I’m also charting the daily reports on COVID-19 on my simple little graph. It’s my way of visualizing my own potential safety. I mean, as long as the blue line keeps bouncing up and down between 20- or 30-something and 102, I know the virus is still out there, lurking, and waiting for me to make a mistake. And as long as the red line is shooting skyward like that rocket ship did Saturday, I know there’s still plenty of danger. “Danger, Will Robinson.” (Apologies to “Lost in Space.”)

But rest assured. If that blue line ever does hit zero new cases and stays at zero for an extended period of time, and if the red line reaches, say, 2,500 and then goes flat and stays flat for days, then life as we know it could begin to return to normal. That won’t stop me from charting the daily reports, but it might encourage me to see a doctor, visit some friends or shop for my own groceries.

Or maybe not. There’s still the second wave to worry about. And the third wave in the fall, and flu season, and mutations, and….ah, nevermind.